The Loft - Level 2, 627 Chapel Street, South Yarra, VIC 3141

WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT UPDATE JULY 2020

 

Wow what a first half of 2020 it has been

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Pinnacle Road – Investment Market Update 

 

 

 

Dear Pinnacle Road Wealth Clients and Partners,

 

Wow what a first half of 2020 it has been!!

 

A world health crisis, a world economic crisis, unprecedented government and central bank stimulus to keep economies alive, a massive plunge in world share markets followed by a quarterly rise that hasn’t been seen in 20+ years, supermarkets shelves emptied by the hoarders, some companies (think tourism and hospitality) going bust, some companies (think technology and online shopping) going boom, record unemployment, working from home and the list goes on.  At the time of writing, around the world there have been around 14.3m people who have contracted the virus and tragically a little over 600,000 people have died.

 

As we cautiously enter the new financial year and the world shows signs of bracing for a second wave of the virus, it appears the equity market has shrugged off the financial crisis for the time being.

 

Global economies began to come back to life during June with consumers opening their wallets again and overall activity increasing.  The concern remains that this apparent surge in confidence may be the result of the lid coming off pent-up demand and people coming out of isolation rather than a “return to normal”.  What will happen should we return to isolation is of concern.

 

From an economic perspective, it would seem that the unprecedented magnitude of the Australian government’s response to keep our economy afloat has stemmed off a financial crisis to date.  With much of the stimulus set to end in September we remain cautiously optimistic as we head into the third quarter.  Interestingly, many economic forecasters are predicted that the fall off in growth will not be as dramatic as previously thought. 

 

The second quarter of 2020, markets globally and locally closed on their best quarterly gain since the turn of the century.  US markets (S&P 500) fell 33.67% when they hit their low in late March but for the June quarter recovered to finish 5.39% higher for the financial year.  Most other major markets are still not fully recovered from the late March lows, but all saw record growth for the June quarter.  However, with case numbers of Covid-19 also hitting new record numbers the world over, we are hesitant to believe the worst is behind us.  We will be watching closely as companies around the world report their earnings for the June quarter and also on what their outlook statements suggest.

 

The tables below highlights the huge variances in geographical markets, the falls across different markets from February peaks through to the March lows, as well as the recovery through to the end of June.   We have also included some specific stocks so you can see even bigger swings.

 

Exchange

%Fall from 

Peak to trough

%rise 

from trough

%return 

FY20

% return 

CY to 30 June

Australia (ASX 200)

(37.09%)

31.49%

(10.42%)

(11.78%)

US (S&P 500)

(33.67%)

38.57%

5.39%

(4.04%)

Hong Kong (Hang Seng)

(25.33%)

12.59%

(14.42%)

(13.35%)

Japan (Nikkei)

(31.12%)

34.65%

4.76%

(5.78%)

China (Shanghai)

(14.62%)

10.49%

(0.19%)

(2.15%)

England (FTSE)

(34.93%)

23.55%

(16.91%)

(18.20%)

 

Stocks

%Fall From  

Peak to trough

%rise

from trough

%return 

FY20

 % return 

CY to 30 June

BHP (mining)

(29.83%)

32.52%

(12.97%)

(7.97%)

Afterpay (buy now, pay later)

(77.33%)

585.28%

143.28%

108.30%

Webjet (travel)

(72.19%)

21.61%

(66.38%)

(64.88%)

Newcrest Mining (Gold)

(19.71%)

38.72%

(1.31%)

4.23%

Ansell (protective gear)

(32.63%)

71.26%

36.69%

26.42%

Shopify (online shopping)

(29.91%)

152.86%

216.24%

138.74%

Zoom (video conference)

51.54%

58.90%

185.55%

272.63%

Netflix

(6.67%)

26.31%

23.88%

40.63%

 

The reality is that there are still many unknown risks in the market at the moment, which cause me to be cautious when investing in the short term.  However, as we have previously said, as long term investors we need to stay focused on investing in quality companies, managed by quality leaders, who have strong market positions and sound balance sheets.  We need to diversify our portfolios across all the major asset classes and use our asset allocation benchmarks as a guide to buying and selling in the long term.

 

The economy will recover from this, it may take time but it will.  Global share markets have always eclipsed their previous highs, but again it is a question of how long will it take.

 

Please also click up the top to access our June newsletter which provides further details about the economy, how the share market has been performing and other key things to help you navigate through these uncertain times.

 

As always, please feel free to call me if you have any questions or concerns about your portfolio or personal financial situation.  We are here to help and support you through this time.

 

Stay well!

Mark Rice 

Director – Wealth Management 

M: 0435 618 232 E: Mark@pinnacleroad.com.au

 

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PINNACLE ROAD MONTHLY NEWSLETTER EDITION #1

 

 

 

 

 

PINNACLE ROAD MONTHLY NEWSLETTER EDITION #1

Welcome to Pinnacle Road’s first newsletter. Each month we will be sending you a newsletter to ensure you’re kept up to date with the latest news regarding all things Finance.

 

Accounting & Advisory

Our Services:

– Tax & Accounting
– Business Advisory
– Cloud Accounting
– Bookkeeping

It’s been a challenging time for many people this year, but that doesn’t mean managing your tax affairs needs to be.

We have recently seen the introduction of JobKeeper, instant asset write-off and the Cash Flow Boost at a Federal level and the Boosting Support Fund grant at the State level.

 

•          The JobKeeper Payment is open to eligible employers so they can continue to pay their eligible employees and restart quickly when the COVID-19 crisis is over. On 21 July, the Government announced it is extending the JobKeeper Payment until 28 March 2021 and is targeting support to those businesses and not-for-profits which continue to be significantly impacted by the Coronavirus. From 28 September 2020, eligibility for the JobKeeper Payment will be based on actual turnover in the relevant periods, the payment will be stepped down and paid at two rates.

•          The Cash Flow Boost is a tax-free payment between $20,000 and $100,000 to eligible businesses who employ, delivered through credits in the activity statement system.

•          From 12 March 2020 until 31 December 2020, the instant asset write-off threshold was increased to $150,000 (up from $30,000). We have seen a lot of activity in this space, with many of our clients purchasing new business vehicles, and writing off the cost in full in order to maximise their tax position.

•          The Victorian Government recently announced the Business Support Fund Extension which provides businesses within metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire that are affected by the return to Stay at Home restrictions with a one-off grant of $5,000. This program is in addition to the first round of the Business Support Fund, which closed on 1 June 2020.

 

With the recent legislative changes, It’s now more important than ever to seek professional tax help to ensure that you are receiving all benefits that you are entitled to.

 

Final note, Pinnacle Road are pleased to announce that Holly Howard has recently joined the team. Holly is a Charted Accountant with six years of professional tax experience. Holly will be taking the lead as our tax manager, having already taken the lead on the JobKeeper project. We look forward to the exciting future with Holly.

 

 


TAX TIP:

Do you use a motor vehicle for business travel? Did you know that a motor vehicle logbook may yield you a greater tax deduction than if you use the statutory cents per kilometre rate? In order to use the logbook method, a logbook needs to be kept for a period of 12 weeks and records all business and personal tax. The logbook will remain valid for a 5 year period.

 

Commercial Finance

Commercial lending has definitely been restricted by COVID, however rates are at an all time low.

If you own commercial property either owner occupy or investment then you should have your debt reviewed.

We recently refinanced from one major to another and received an interest only rate of 3.3%.

 

If your rate doesn’t have a 3 in front of it, let us know now!

 

 

 

Residential Finance

 

Fixed Rates 2.09% and variable rates as low as 2.59%

 

Greetings from the Mortgage Broking Team. We hope everyone is keeping safe and looking after themselves during these unprecedented times.

 

As we all suspected, the Coronavirus loomed to have a negative effect on the Australian housing market, with fears there would be a drop in sales over the coming 6 months. We are now starting to see this come to fruition with the Australian Bureau of Statistics releasing data on home loan approvals in May. The value of Home loan approvals has plunged 11.6% per cent in May, following a 4.6% fall in April. These figures show us the level of sales have been down, which we all suspected due to restriction on Auctions and open houses. With restrictions easing throughout the country, except Victoria, we are hopeful this market will start to recover, and we will see purchase levels back to normal. I can report that at Pinnacle Road, we have done a record number of pre-approvals for the month of June, so we believe the demand is still there, the consumer sentiment remains cautious though.

 

Although, on the whole, banks have been very good throughout this crisis by allowing deferrals of payments and being flexible on some of their policies in regards to income, we are now seeing higher restrictions with people on Job Keeper payments. All banks are different on their policies in regards to this, however some banks will not be accepting self employed customers that are on Job Keeper and some will take the Job Keeper payment as your actual pay instead of what it previously was. Therefore, it is important you speak to us regarding any finance, as we can point you in the direction of the lender that is most suitable for your situation.

 

In some positive news, the Bureau of Statistics have also reported that the value of refinances for owner occupied properties has risen 29.1% for the month of May. This is something that we have noticed at Pinnacle Road, with May and June being extremely busy months for us in terms of refinancing. We have seen record lows in interest rates and large cash back offers by banks who are desperately competing for your home loans. I would encourage anyone who hasn’t spoken to us, to please do so as we are now seeing fixed rates as low as 2.09% and variable rates as low as 2.59%, as well as cash back offers of up to $3,000 cashback by simply refinancing. Of course, we make this process as seamless as possible at Pinnacle Road.

 

So it is not all doom and gloom in the lending sector with our team being as busy as ever. However, it is very important at the minute to know your options when it comes to finance. So please touch base with us if you have any questions at all and are looking for some direction on your next purchase or refinance.

 

Need guidance with your next purchase or refinance? Get in touch!

 

Equipment Finance

What a few months it has been with our Equipment Finance business! The chaos that hit early March followed then by a busy June and now the unknown again.

 

Some key points below for our clients reference;

 

Review FY 2020

Last financial year our equipment finance team settled 243 deals with an average size lend of $63,094. This was an increase from FY 19 by 20% which is encouraging and although COVID severely effected months March & April, May and June were very strong considering.

 

Below is a breakdown of which lenders we use for your reference: 

 

  • – Macquarie Equipment Rentals: 42%
  • – Westpac : 25%
  • – Macquarie Leasing : 13%
  • – Capital  7%
  • – Metro Finance : 5%
  • – Flexi: 2%
  • – Grenke: .3%
  • – Bank of Queensland: .3%
  •  

Deferred Payment

We recently sent an EDM out to all of our commercial clients regarding the impact of deferring your payments, please ensure you review that email and contact George if you have any questions.

 

Instant Tax Write Off 150k

The government has extended till December 31st 2020, please contact us to discuss this further.

 

Rates

Rates are still very low and are expected to remain the same for awhile, for a strong borrower on Tier 1 machinery we are seeing rates with a 3% in front. 

 

Industries that are on the financier watch list due to COVID-19

Below is an updated list of High Risk Industries from a financiers point of view: 

 

  • – Tourism
  • – Hospitality
  • – Retail
  • – Construction
  • – Sports, Art and Recreation
  • – Private Education
  • – Transport (excluding Public Transport and Delivery Services)
  • – Accommodation and Food services
  •  

If your business operates within one of these industries a full assessment will be required if you want to borrow money.

 

Contact us here to find out how your company could be affected.

 

Wealth Management

 

Our Services:

– Superannuation
– Portfolio Management
– Personal Insurance
– Budgeting
– Debt Management
– Estate Planning

 

For our first EDM, the impact of COVID-19 on the economic market will be our primary focus. 

Economic and Market Commentary

 

As we cautiously enter the new financial year and the world shows signs of bracing for a second wave of the virus, it appears the equity market has shrugged off a financial crisis for the time being.

 

Global economies began to come back to life during June with consumers opening their wallets again and overall activity increasing.  The concern remains that this apparent surge in confidence may be the result of the lid coming off pent-up demand and people coming out of isolation rather than a “return to normal”.

 

From an economic perspective, it would seem that the unprecedented magnitude of the Australian government’s response to keep our economy afloat has stemmed off a financial crisis to date.  With much of the stimulus set to end in September we remain cautiously optimistic as we head into the third quarter.  Interestingly, many economic forecasters are predicted that the fall off in growth will not be as dramatic as previously thought. 

 

The second quarter of 2020, markets globally and locally closed on their best quarterly gain since the turn of the century.  US markets fell 33.67% when they hit their low in late March but this quarter recovered and are up 4.9% on February highs.  Most other major markets are still not fully recovered from the late March lows, but all have seen record growth for this quarter.  However, with case numbers of COVID-19 also hitting new record numbers the world over, we are hesitant to believe the worst is behind us.  We will be watching closely as companies around the world report their earnings for the June quarter and also on what their outlook statements suggest.

 

The table below highlights the huge variances in geographical markets, the falls across different markets from February peaks through to the March lows, as well as the recovery to date.

 

Exchange

% Fall from Peak to trough

% rise from trough

% return FYTD

% return CYTD

Australia (ASX 200)
(37.09%)
31.49%
(10.42%)
(11.78%)
US (S&P 500)
(33.67%)
38.57%
5.39%
(4.04%)
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
(25.33%)
12.59%
(14.42%)
(13.35%)
Japan (Nikkei)
(31.12%)
34.65%
4.76%
(5.78%)
China (Shanghai)
(14.62%)
10.49%
(0.19%)
(2.15%)
England (FTSE)
(34.93%)
23.55%
(16.91%)
(18.20%)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s a great time for expert financial planning! We would love to help.

 

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Pinnacle Road 163 Eastern Road South Melbourne, vic 3205